Economy
Fed
Fed Decision in December?
25 bps increase
No change
50+ bps increase
+2 more outcomes
Volume$7.03M
Fed
Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
chance of Yes+0.5%
Volume$1.20M
Politics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
chance of Yes−1.0%
Volume$15.76M
Economy
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 4.70%
Below 4.65%
Below 4.60%
+10 more outcomes
Volume$380K
Rewards 200, 4.5, 50 Deprec
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
0 (0 bps)
1 (25 bps)
3 (75 bps)
+10 more outcomes
Volume$55.00M
Fed
Fed Decision in January?
No change
25 bps increase
50+ bps increase
+2 more outcomes
Volume$1.01M
Tech
Largest Company end of October 2026?
NVIDIA
Apple
Alphabet
+6 more outcomes
Volume$972K
Fed
Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
Hike–Pause–Hike
Hike–Pause–Pause
Other
Volume$536K
BOJ
Bank of Japan Decision in October?
No change
50+ bps decrease
25 bps decrease
+2 more outcomes
Volume$366K
Tech
3rd Largest Company end of October?
Microsoft
Alphabet
NVIDIA
+6 more outcomes
Volume$132K
Economy
Largest Company end of December 2026?
NVIDIA
Apple
Alphabet
+5 more outcomes
Volume$8.99M
ECB
ECB Interest Rates: October 2026
No change
50+ bps decrease
25 bps decrease
+2 more outcomes
Volume$683K
Fed
Fed rate cut by...?
July 2027 Meeting
April 2027 Meeting
June 2027 Meeting
+3 more outcomes
Volume$3.84M
Tech
3rd Largest Company end of December 2026?
Microsoft
Alphabet
Apple
+6 more outcomes
Volume$116K
Aus
Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November
25 bps increase
No change
50+ bps increase
+2 more outcomes
Volume$241K
Canada
Bank of Canada Decision in December?
No Change
25 bps increase
25 bps decrease
+2 more outcomes
Volume$73K
Fed
Trump publicly insults Warsh by...?
December 31
November 30
October 31
Volume$29K
Business
US recession by end of 2026?
chance of Yes−1.0%
Volume$2.39M
Fed
Fed Decision in March?
No change
25 bps increase
25 bps decrease
+2 more outcomes
Volume$13K
Fed
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
Pause-Hike-Pause
Pause-Hike-Hike
Pause-Pause-Hike
+2 more outcomes
Volume$88K
Economy
How low will 30-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Below 5.25%
Below 5.20%
Below 5.15%
+7 more outcomes
Volume$235K
Economy
How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
4.80%
4.90%
5.00%
+4 more outcomes
Volume$201K
Tech
2nd Largest Company end of October 2026?
Apple
NVIDIA
Microsoft
+6 more outcomes
Volume$120K
Mexico
Bank of Mexico Decision in November?
No change
25 bps decrease
25 bps increase
+2 more outcomes
Volume$131K
Brazil
Bank of Brazil decision in November?
No Change
25 bps decrease
25 bps increase
+2 more outcomes
Volume$118K
GDP
US GDP growth in Q3 2026?
≥3.0%
2.5–3.0%
2.0–2.5%
+4 more outcomes
Volume$72K
Fed
Fed Decision in April?
No change
25 bps increase
25 bps decrease
+2 more outcomes
Volume$6K
ISM
ISM Manufacturing PMI - October 2026
55.0 to 55.9
54.0 to 54.9
53.0 to 53.9
+7 more outcomes
Volume$33K
BOE
Bank of England decision in November?
25 bps increase
No change
25 bps decrease
+2 more outcomes
Volume$421K
Economy
How high will 30-year Treasury yield go before 2027?
5.40%
5.50%
5.60%
+4 more outcomes
Volume$278K
Oil
EU emergency diesel stocks end of October 2026?
30M+
31M+
32M+
+5 more outcomes
Volume$66K
Brazil
Brazil Annual Inflation 2026
5.00-5.49%
5.50-5.99%
6.00-6.49%
+7 more outcomes
Volume$194K
USD
USD x Iranian rials End of October?
2.7-2.8M
2.6-2.7M
2.8M+
+4 more outcomes
Volume$88K
AAA
Gas prices on October 29?
< $4.2300
most likely range
Volume$4K
Tech
Elon Musk Net Worth on October 31?
$900B-$1.00T
$800-$900B
$1.00-$1.10T
+4 more outcomes
Volume$49K
Culture
US Birth Rate in 2026? (Per 1000 Women)
51.0+
51.5+
52.0+
+2 more outcomes
Volume$3K
Finance
Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
↑ 7.50%
↓ 7.00%
↓ 6.75%
+8 more outcomes
Volume$111K
BOJ
Bank of Japan Decision in December?
25 bps increase
No change
50+ bps increase
+2 more outcomes
Volume$28K
BOE
Bank of England decision in December?
No change
25 bps increase
50+ bps increase
+2 more outcomes
Volume$22K
Macro Indicators
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
5.0%
10.0%
5.5%
+2 more outcomes
Volume$587K