Geopolitics
Military Strikes
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
chance of Yes+1.0%
Volume$50.64M
Iran
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by...? (2 week pause)
August 31
August 14
July 31
Volume$8.09M
Middle East
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
No Head of State
Reza Pahlavi
+27 more outcomes
Volume$37.25M
Iran
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
July 27
July 28
July 29
+6 more outcomes
Volume$11.49M
Politics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
chance of Yes−0.2%
Volume$23.23M
Trump
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
chance of Yes+41.9%
Volume$857K
Iran Regime
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
September 30
August 31
+1 more outcomes
Volume$68.38M
Iran
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31
September 30
August 31
+3 more outcomes
Volume$11.88M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 31
August 15
Volume$4.35M
Iran
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
+4 more outcomes
Volume$1.93M
NATO
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31
October 31
August 31
Volume$3.41M
Politics
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31
September 30
August 31
+1 more outcomes
Volume$8.77M
Politics
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31
September 30
+2 more outcomes
Volume$21.33M
Politics
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
September 30
August 31
+1 more outcomes
Volume$28.97M
Iran
Iran military action against a gulf state on...?
July 31
July 27
Volume$2.65M
Politics
Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 31
August 15
July 31
Volume$25.39M
Iran
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 31
August 15
August 7
+1 more outcomes
Volume$7.65M
Oil
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31?
30+
40+
50+
+3 more outcomes
Volume$1.68M
Main Election
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
Benjamin Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett
+15 more outcomes
Volume$30.39M
Iran
Will Iran target Ukraine by...?
September 30
August 31
Volume$218K
Ukraine Map
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31
September 30
Volume$227K
putin
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31, 2026
September 30, 2026
+2 more outcomes
Volume$19.01M
Ukraine Map
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by...?
December 31
September 30
Volume$335K
US-Iran
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$7.73M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
chance of Yes−2.0%
Volume$957K
Politics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
chance of Yes−2.5%
Volume$6.34M
Geopolitics
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by...?
December 31
September 30
Volume$96K
Politics
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
chance of Yes+1.5%
Volume$216K
Iran
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 15
July 31
Volume$8.55M
Iran
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 30
Switzerland
Qatar
+16 more outcomes
Volume$3.28M
Politics
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31, 2026
September 30, 2026
August 31, 2026
+1 more outcomes
Volume$8.56M
Trump-Machado
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
Delcy Rodríguez
María Corina Machado
+13 more outcomes
Volume$94.76M
China
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
chance of Yes+4.0%
Volume$2.29M
Politics
Trump out as President before 2027?
chance of Yes−1.0%
Volume$10.34M
Geopolitics
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by...?
December 31
September 30
August 31
+1 more outcomes
Volume$8.19M
Politics
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
chance of Yes+0.1%
Volume$39.24M
Iran
Iran invades Kuwait by...?
August 31
July 31
Volume$631K
Politics
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31
October 31
August 31
Volume$5.76M
HFC
China x Japan military clash before 2027?
chance of Yes+1.5%
Volume$1.12M
Politics
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by...?
December 31
September 30
July 31
Volume$1.03M