Geopolitics
Main Election
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Benjamin Netanyahu
Gadi Eizenkot
Naftali Bennett
+16 more outcomes
Volume$78.76M
Iran
US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 28
October 31
November 2
+6 more outcomes
Volume$28.89M
Iran
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
March 31
December 31
November 30
+3 more outcomes
Volume$43.85M
Iran
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
October 27
October 29
October 30
+13 more outcomes
Volume$40.44M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$3.98M
HFC
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
chance of Yes−1.0%
Volume$16.47M
World
Israel Election: Ra'am # of seats?
7
8+
6
+3 more outcomes
Volume$276K
Reza Pahlavi
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
chance of Yes−2.0%
Volume$28.25M
Starmer
Next leader out of power before 2027?
None before 2027
Netanyahu - Israel PM
Sánchez - Spanish PM
+19 more outcomes
Volume$2.01M
Military Strikes
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$75.75M
Iran
US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
chance of Yes+3.0%
Volume$1.51M
Politics
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31
November 30
+1 more outcomes
Volume$28.25M
World
Israel Election: Otzma # of seats?
6–7
most likely range
Volume$172K
Iran
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
December 31
November 30
November 2
+1 more outcomes
Volume$2.76M
World
Who will receive the first mandate to form Israel's next government?
Gadi Eizenkot
Benjamin Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett
+16 more outcomes
Volume$310K
Politics
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027
November 30, 2027
September 30, 2027
+12 more outcomes
Volume$9.99M
World
Israel Election: Joint List # of seats?
10–11
most likely range
Volume$105K
Politics
Maduro Prison Time?
No prison time
most likely range
Volume$1.01M
Politics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
chance of Yes−1.0%
Volume$15.76M
Iran
Who wins the Senate pending Hormuz Agreement before the midterms?
No Hormuz Agreement
Hormuz Agreement; D Senate
Hormuz Agreement; R Senate
Volume$1.72M
Iran
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31
November 30
October 31
Volume$20.52M
putin
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
March 31, 2027
December 31, 2026
Volume$30.79M
Politics
Trump out as President before 2027?
chance of Yes−0.8%
Volume$13.33M
Iran
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
December 31
November 30
October 31
Volume$3.45M
Geopolitics
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...?
December 31, 2027
March 31, 2027
December 31
+1 more outcomes
Volume$3.08M
putin
Will Ukraine target Moscow on...?
October 31
October 30
October 26
Volume$583K
Geopolitics
Netanyahu out by...?
June 30, 2027
March 31, 2027
December 31
Volume$124.83M
Oil
US imports Russian diesel by...?
December 31
November 30
November 15
+2 more outcomes
Volume$645K
putin
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31
November 30
October 31
Volume$2.17M
Trump Cabinet
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
chance of Yes−1.5%
Volume$858K
Iran
Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31, 2026
November 30, 2026
October 31, 2026
Volume$931K
NATO
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31
November 30
November 15
+1 more outcomes
Volume$12.70M
Middle East
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
No Head of State
Reza Pahlavi
+27 more outcomes
Volume$40.54M
Israel
How many different countries will Israel strike in 2026?
4
5
6
+9 more outcomes
Volume$7.70M
Iran
Israeli airspace closed by...? (Excluding Holiday Closures)
December 31
October 31
Volume$651K
Trump-Machado
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Nicolás Maduro
Delcy Rodríguez
No Head of State
+13 more outcomes
Volume$99.09M
Politics
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
chance of Yes+0.1%
Volume$45.12M
Fund
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Dilution of Iran's Uranium
≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
+3 more outcomes
Volume$1.38M
Politics
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China
No meeting by December 31
Russia
+12 more outcomes
Volume$2.06M
Iran Regime
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
October 31
Volume$76.84M