Geopolitics
putin
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31, 2026
September 30, 2026
Volume$24.16M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
chance of Yes−0.1%
Volume$2.51M
Iran
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
October 31
September 30
September 21
+1 more outcomes
Volume$2.33M
Iran
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
+2 more outcomes
Volume$28.11M
Politics
Israel closes its airspace by...?
chance of Yes−0.4%
Volume$30.51M
Iran
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
September 30
September 18
September 4
+2 more outcomes
Volume$2.43M
Politics
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
chance of Yes+0.4%
Volume$41.34M
Politics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
chance of Yes−3.0%
Volume$11.63M
Reza Pahlavi
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$25.87M
Military Strikes
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$65.93M
Main Election
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
Benjamin Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett
+16 more outcomes
Volume$37.24M
Iran
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
September 15
September 30
October 31
+2 more outcomes
Volume$29.83M
Politics
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
+1 more outcomes
Volume$13.64M
Davos
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
chance of Yes−1.6%
Volume$10.68M
Politics
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31
November 30
+2 more outcomes
Volume$25.29M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
chance of Yes−0.7%
Volume$8.49M
Awards
Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
Yulia Navalnaya
Save the Children
International Court of Justice
+28 more outcomes
Volume$23.91M
Iran
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by…?
December 31
November 30
October 31
+1 more outcomes
Volume$17.58M
Iran Regime
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
September 30
Volume$73.20M
Politics
Trump out as President before 2027?
chance of Yes+1.0%
Volume$11.58M
China
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
+3 more outcomes
Volume$1.19M
Iran
Will Iran target an Arab country by...?
October 31
September 30
September 15
Volume$33K
Iran
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
March 31, 2027
December 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
+1 more outcomes
Volume$11.19M
putin
Will Ukraine target Moscow by...?
September 15
September 11
Volume$30K
Politics
Where will Trump and Putin meet next in 2026?
China
No meeting by December 31
United States
+12 more outcomes
Volume$1.07M
Oil
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?
September 30
September 15
Volume$50K
Politics
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027
November 30, 2027
October 31, 2027
+12 more outcomes
Volume$7.57M
HFC
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$13.21M
putin
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31
November 30
October 31
+2 more outcomes
Volume$711K
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
chance of Yes−3.0%
Volume$343K
NATO
NATO x Russia military clash by...?
December 31
October 31
Volume$6.77M
Iran
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 30
September 15
Volume$1.19M
shah
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
chance of Yes−1.0%
Volume$21.91M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
chance of Yes−3.0%
Volume$652K
Iran
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
September 30
September 25
September 18
+4 more outcomes
Volume$596K
putin
Russia x Ukraine any diplomatic meeting by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
+1 more outcomes
Volume$186K
Politics
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
September 30
Volume$29.31M
World
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31
Volume$3.80M
Oil
Which month will Strait of Hormuz traffic return to normal?
No Return to Normal Traffic in 2026
December
November
+3 more outcomes
Volume$434K
Oil
Crude Oil all time high by...?
December 31
September 30
Volume$3.68M