Geopolitics
Politics
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
+1 more outcomes
Volume$13.47M
Iran
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
+2 more outcomes
Volume$27.85M
Military Strikes
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$65.78M
Iran
Iran-Oman Hormuz Management Agreement by...?
October 31
September 30
September 21
+1 more outcomes
Volume$1.99M
putin
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31, 2026
September 30, 2026
Volume$23.73M
Iran
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
September 30
September 18
September 4
+2 more outcomes
Volume$2.17M
Politics
Israel closes its airspace by...?
chance of Yes+0.4%
Volume$30.30M
Politics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
chance of Yes+1.0%
Volume$11.46M
Iran
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
September 30
September 25
September 18
+2 more outcomes
Volume$571K
Main Election
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
Benjamin Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett
+16 more outcomes
Volume$37.16M
Politics
Trump out as President before 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$11.54M
Iran
Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through...?
September 15
September 30
October 31
+2 more outcomes
Volume$29.73M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$2.23M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$8.43M
Iran Regime
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
December 31
September 30
Volume$73.15M
Reza Pahlavi
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$25.77M
China
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$3.21M
Middle East
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
No Head of State
Reza Pahlavi
+27 more outcomes
Volume$39.43M
Politics
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
chance of Yes−0.1%
Volume$41.19M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$635K
Oil
Crude Oil all time high by...?
December 31
September 30
Volume$3.65M
Politics
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31
November 30
+2 more outcomes
Volume$25.23M
Iran
Where will the next next round of US-Iran peace talks be...?
No Meeting by September 30
Pakistan
Switzerland
+16 more outcomes
Volume$5.66M
Iran
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
March 31, 2027
December 31, 2026
October 31, 2026
+1 more outcomes
Volume$11.14M
HFC
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
chance of Yes+0.1%
Volume$13.18M
Iran
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
chance of Yes−0.1%
Volume$2.12M
Iran
Iran charges Hormuz fees by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
Volume$2.87M
putin
Russia x Ukraine peace talks by...?
December 31
November 30
October 31
+2 more outcomes
Volume$679K
Fund
What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?
Iran Reconstruction Funding
Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)
1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium
+3 more outcomes
Volume$869K
Cuba
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
chance of Yes−1.0%
Volume$3.31M
China
Will Xi Jinping visit US by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
+3 more outcomes
Volume$1.15M
putin
Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
Volume$232K
Iran
Houthis enter Saudi Arabia by...?
October 31
September 30
December 31
+1 more outcomes
Volume$15K
Iran
US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?
September 30
September 15
Volume$1.18M
Oil
Houthis seize an oil tanker by...?
September 30
September 15
Volume$19K
Iran
Trump invokes war powers in Yemen by September 30?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$12K
Politics
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by...?
December 31, 2027
November 30, 2027
October 31, 2027
+12 more outcomes
Volume$7.53M
Oil
Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by...?
September 30
September 15
Volume$11K
Oil
How many ships transit the Strait of Hormuz week of September 7?
25–29
most likely range
Volume$43K
Iran
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026?
chance of Yes−0.6%
Volume$11.76M