Stance
How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
Business·Fed Rates·Jerome Powell

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

VOL $45,656,275
0 (0 bps)
1 (25 bps)
2 (50 bps)
3 (75 bps)
ALL
0 (0 bps)
VOL $6,678,581
01234567890123456789%
1 (25 bps)
VOL $2,275,539
0123456789%
2 (50 bps)
VOL $2,289,656
0123456789%
3 (75 bps)
VOL $2,269,899
0123456789%
4 (100 bps)
VOL $2,232,722
0123456789%
12+ (300+ bps)
VOL $3,596,043
0123456789%
5 (125 bps)
VOL $2,482,701
0123456789%
6 (150 bps)
VOL $3,765,553
0123456789%
7 (175 bps)
VOL $3,106,657
0123456789%
8 (200 bps)
VOL $3,130,143
0123456789%
9 (225 bps)
VOL $4,097,067
0123456789%
10 (250 bps)
VOL $4,779,093
0123456789%
11 (275 bps)
VOL $4,952,622
0123456789%

Rules

This market will resolve according to the exact amount of cuts of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any cuts made during the December meeting). Emergency rate cuts outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of cuts in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions. For example, if the Fed cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of cuts becomes impossible — i.e., if more cuts have already occurred than the strike in question. Note that cuts between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut. The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
0 (0 bps)
0 (0 bps)
Yes01234567890123456789.0123456789¢
Outcome
Bal $0123456789
$USD
Avg price01234567890123456789.0123456789¢
Est. shares012345678901234567890123456789.01234567890123456789
Amount$012345678901234567890123456789.01234567890123456789
To win$012345678901234567890123456789.01234567890123456789