Stance
How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?
Economy·Fed Rates·Treasuries

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

VOL $380,267
Below 4.70%—
Below 4.65%—
Below 4.60%—
Below 4.55%—
ALL
Below 4.70%
VOL $18,048
01234567890123456789%
Below 4.65%
VOL $73,720
01234567890123456789%
Below 4.60%
VOL $8,799
01234567890123456789%
Below 4.55%
VOL $11,829
01234567890123456789%
Below 4.50%
VOL $33,627
01234567890123456789%
Below 4.45%
VOL $43,086
01234567890123456789%
Below 4.40%
VOL $30,471
01234567890123456789%
Below 4.35%
VOL $48,063
01234567890123456789%
Below 4.30%
VOL $24,169
01234567890123456789%
Below 4.25%
VOL $26,123
0123456789%
Below 4.20%
VOL $35,939
0123456789%
Below 4.10%
VOL $16,360
0123456789%
Below 4.00%
VOL $10,032
0123456789%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between September 3, 2026 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 5-year yield is lower than the listed value, or once data is available for December 31, 2026. If no qualifying value is published and data is not available for December 31, 2026 by January 14, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specifically the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "5 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2026).
Below 4.70%
Yes01234567890123456789¢
Outcome
Bal $0123456789
$USD
Avg price01234567890123456789¢
Est. shares012345678901234567890123456789.01234567890123456789
Amount$012345678901234567890123456789.01234567890123456789
To win$012345678901234567890123456789.01234567890123456789