Politics
fomc
Fed Decision in September?
25 bps increase
No change
50+ bps increase
+2 more outcomes
Volume$146.24M
Elections
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson
Ulf Kristersson
Jimmie Åkesson
+7 more outcomes
Volume$7.08M
President
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Jon Ossoff
+49 more outcomes
Volume$705.45M
Crypto
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
chance of Yes+2.0%
Volume$15.77M
United States
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Jon Ossoff
Gavin Newsom
+48 more outcomes
Volume$1.28B
putin
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31, 2026
September 30, 2026
Volume$24.16M
Politics
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)
New People (NL)
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
+5 more outcomes
Volume$27.67M
Rewards 20, 4.5, 50
Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
Sweden Democrats (SD)
Moderate Party (M)
+6 more outcomes
Volume$2.03M
Culture
Elon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
140–159
most likely range
Volume$1.30M
United States
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance
Marco Rubio
Tucker Carlson
+39 more outcomes
Volume$704.04M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
chance of Yes−0.1%
Volume$2.51M
Politics
Sweden Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place
Moderate Party (M)
Sweden Democrats (SD)
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
+6 more outcomes
Volume$517K
French Election
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen
Édouard Philippe
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
+38 more outcomes
Volume$133.12M
United States
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep
R Senate, D House
Republicans Sweep
+2 more outcomes
Volume$11.85M
Culture
Elon Musk # tweets September 12 - September 14, 2026?
< 40
most likely range
Volume$320K
Politics
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Renan Santos
+16 more outcomes
Volume$149.32M
Iran
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
+2 more outcomes
Volume$28.11M
Texas Senate
Texas Senate Election Winner
James Talarico (D)
Ken Paxton (R)
Volume$1.22M
Politics
Israel closes its airspace by...?
chance of Yes−0.4%
Volume$30.51M
Iran
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
September 30
September 18
September 4
+2 more outcomes
Volume$2.43M
Politics
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
chance of Yes+0.4%
Volume$41.34M
Politics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
chance of Yes−3.0%
Volume$11.63M
Culture
Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
160–179
most likely range
Volume$482K
US Election
Which party wins 2028 US Presidential Election?
Democratic
Republican
Volume$2.25M
Reza Pahlavi
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$25.87M
Senate
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Volume$4.39M
Politics
Sweden Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Sweden Democrats (SD)
Moderate Party (M)
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
+6 more outcomes
Volume$200K
Michigan Midterm
Michigan Senate Election Winner
Abdul El-Sayed (D)
Mike Rogers (R)
Volume$783K
Military Strikes
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$65.93M
Trump
Trump out as President by September 30?
chance of Yes−0.1%
Volume$771K
Sweden
Sweden Parliamentary Election: SD Vote Share?
16-18%
18-20%
<16%
+1 more outcomes
Volume$147K
Brazil
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Renan Santos
+15 more outcomes
Volume$7.01M
Main Election
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
Benjamin Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett
+16 more outcomes
Volume$37.24M
Politics
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
+1 more outcomes
Volume$13.64M
Davos
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
chance of Yes−1.6%
Volume$10.68M
Politics
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31
November 30
+2 more outcomes
Volume$25.29M
Culture
Elon Musk # tweets September 15 - September 22, 2026?
180–199
most likely range
Volume$80K
Sweden
Sweden Parliamentary Election: M Vote Share?
18-20%
20%+
16-18%
+1 more outcomes
Volume$129K
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
chance of Yes−0.7%
Volume$8.49M
Sweden
Sweden Parliamentary Election: S Vote Share?
27-30%
30-33%
<27%
+1 more outcomes
Volume$143K