Politics
Ethiopia
Next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Abiy Ahmed
Gedion Timothewos
Alesa Mengesha
+5 more outcomes
Volume$254.79M
fomc
Fed Decision in September?
25 bps increase
No change
25 bps decrease
+2 more outcomes
Volume$8.07M
Military Strikes
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
chance of Yes+1.0%
Volume$50.64M
Middle East
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
No Head of State
Reza Pahlavi
+27 more outcomes
Volume$37.25M
Politics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
chance of Yes−0.2%
Volume$23.23M
Culture
Elon Musk # tweets July 24 - July 31, 2026?
260–279
most likely range
Volume$2.71M
Trump
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by...?
chance of Yes+41.9%
Volume$857K
United States
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Gavin Newsom
Jon Ossoff
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
+48 more outcomes
Volume$1.25B
President
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
Marco Rubio
Gavin Newsom
+47 more outcomes
Volume$674.02M
Crypto
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
chance of Yes+3.0%
Volume$3.32M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by...?
August 31
August 15
Volume$4.35M
Culture
Elon Musk # tweets July 28 - August 4, 2026?
220–239
most likely range
Volume$733K
Iran
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
+4 more outcomes
Volume$1.93M
French Election
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen
Édouard Philippe
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
+38 more outcomes
Volume$116.81M
primary elections
Michigan Democratic Senate Primary Winner
Abdul El-Sayed
Haley Stevens
Mallory McMorrow
+6 more outcomes
Volume$1.68M
Trump
Trump out as President by July 31?
chance of Yes−0.1%
Volume$2.73M
Culture
Elon Musk # tweets July 31 - August 7, 2026?
200–219
most likely range
Volume$214K
Politics
Brazil Presidential Election
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Flávio Bolsonaro
Renan Santos
+14 more outcomes
Volume$116.55M
Politics
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31
September 30
August 31
+1 more outcomes
Volume$8.77M
Politics
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31
September 30
+2 more outcomes
Volume$21.33M
Politics
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by...?
December 31
September 30
August 31
+1 more outcomes
Volume$28.97M
Politics
Israel closes its airspace by...?
August 31
August 15
July 31
Volume$25.39M
Trump
Who will Trump publicly insult by July 31?
Vladimir Putin
Marjorie Taylor Greene
Emmanuel Macron
+19 more outcomes
Volume$180K
Iran
Next round of US-Iran peace talks by...?
August 31
August 15
August 7
+1 more outcomes
Volume$7.65M
UK
Clacton by-election Winner
Nigel Farage
Count Binface
Giles Watling
+7 more outcomes
Volume$3.02M
Main Election
Who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
Benjamin Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett
+15 more outcomes
Volume$30.39M
Politics
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)
New People (NL)
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
+4 more outcomes
Volume$16.43M
Ukraine Map
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by...?
December 31
September 30
Volume$227K
Culture
Elon Musk # tweets in July 2026?
840–879
most likely range
Volume$1.16M
United States
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep
R Senate, D House
Republicans Sweep
+2 more outcomes
Volume$8.98M
United States
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance
Marco Rubio
Ron DeSantis
+39 more outcomes
Volume$681.92M
Politics
South Carolina Republican Senate Special Primary Winner
Darline Graham Nordone
Ralph Norman
Russell Fry
+11 more outcomes
Volume$517K
putin
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31, 2026
September 30, 2026
+2 more outcomes
Volume$19.01M
Global Elections
Next Premier of Quebec
Paul St-Pierre Plamondon
Christine Fréchette
Charles Milliard
+4 more outcomes
Volume$141K
US-Iran
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$7.73M
Trump
Will Trump pardon SBF by July 31?
chance of Yes−0.2%
Volume$926K
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
chance of Yes−2.0%
Volume$957K
Politics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
chance of Yes−2.5%
Volume$6.34M
Politics
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
chance of Yes+1.5%
Volume$216K
Iran
Iran announces withdrawal from MOU negotiations by...?
August 15
July 31
Volume$8.55M