Politics
fomc
Fed Decision in September?
25 bps increase
No change
50+ bps increase
+2 more outcomes
Volume$136.75M
Politics
Brazil Presidential Election
Flávio Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Renan Santos
+16 more outcomes
Volume$148.76M
French Election
Next French Presidential Election
Marine Le Pen
Édouard Philippe
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
+38 more outcomes
Volume$132.80M
Politics
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
+1 more outcomes
Volume$13.47M
Culture
Elon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
40–64
most likely range
Volume$494K
Culture
Elon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
160–179
most likely range
Volume$866K
Iran
US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?
December 31
October 31
September 30
+2 more outcomes
Volume$27.85M
Military Strikes
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$65.78M
Politics
Which party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
United Russia (ER)
New People (NL)
Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)
+5 more outcomes
Volume$27.19M
Elections
Next Prime Minister of Sweden
Magdalena Andersson
Ulf Kristersson
Ebba Busch
+7 more outcomes
Volume$5.67M
President
Presidential Election Winner 2028
JD Vance
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Jon Ossoff
+49 more outcomes
Volume$704.52M
Culture
Elon Musk # tweets September 11 - September 18, 2026?
180–199
most likely range
Volume$264K
putin
Putin out as President of Russia by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31, 2026
September 30, 2026
Volume$23.73M
Iran
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause)
September 30
September 18
September 4
+2 more outcomes
Volume$2.17M
Politics
Israel closes its airspace by...?
chance of Yes+0.4%
Volume$30.30M
United States
Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Jon Ossoff
Gavin Newsom
+48 more outcomes
Volume$1.28B
Politics
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
chance of Yes+1.0%
Volume$11.46M
Iran
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by...?
September 30
September 25
September 18
+2 more outcomes
Volume$571K
Main Election
Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
Gadi Eizenkot
Benjamin Netanyahu
Naftali Bennett
+16 more outcomes
Volume$37.16M
United States
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028
J.D. Vance
Marco Rubio
Tucker Carlson
+39 more outcomes
Volume$703.54M
Politics
Trump out as President before 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$11.54M
Crypto
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
chance of Yes+1.0%
Volume$15.15M
Brazil
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
Flávio Bolsonaro
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Renan Santos
+15 more outcomes
Volume$6.93M
Trump
Trump out as President by September 30?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$698K
Parent For Derivative
Which party will win the House in 2026?
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Volume$10.92M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 15?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$2.23M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$8.43M
Reza Pahlavi
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$25.77M
China
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$3.21M
United States
Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
Democrats Sweep
R Senate, D House
Republicans Sweep
+2 more outcomes
Volume$11.58M
Aliens
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...?
December 31
September 30
Volume$66.99M
Middle East
Iran leader end of 2026?
Mojtaba Khamenei
No Head of State
Reza Pahlavi
+27 more outcomes
Volume$39.43M
Culture
Elon Musk # tweets September 12 - September 14, 2026?
40–64
most likely range
Volume$52K
Iowa Midterm
Iowa Senate Election Winner
Ashley Hinson (R)
Josh Turek (D)
Volume$272K
Senate
Which party will win the Senate in 2026?
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Volume$4.29M
Politics
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
chance of Yes−0.1%
Volume$41.19M
Rewards 20, 4.5, 50
Sweden Parliamentary Election Winner
Swedish Social Democratic Party (S)
Sweden Democrats (SD)
Moderate Party (M)
+6 more outcomes
Volume$1.70M
Oil
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
chance of Yes0.0%
Volume$635K
Brazil
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
Augusto Cury
Renan Santos
Ronaldo Caiado
+16 more outcomes
Volume$1.10M
Politics
Iran leadership change by...?
June 30, 2027
December 31
November 30
+2 more outcomes
Volume$25.23M