Stance
Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?
AI·Tech·Fable

Next Fable Model (5.2+) released by...?

VOL $523,188
December 31—
October 31—
October 24—
October 22—
ALL
December 31
VOL $13,160
01234567890123456789%
October 31
VOL $189,263
01234567890123456789%
October 24
VOL $67,916
01234567890123456789%
October 22
VOL $444
01234567890123456789%
October 21
VOL $5,546
01234567890123456789%
October 18
VOL $1,293
0123456789%
October 16
VOL $11,201
0123456789%
October 17
VOL $62,358
0123456789%
October 15
VOL $18,387
0123456789%

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Anthropic's next Fable model (5.2+) is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A qualifying model must have a name or model identifier that includes "Fable" and be designated as version 5.2 or higher, regardless of capitalization or surrounding prefixes, suffixes, dates, or descriptors. For example, a version 5.2 or higher named in the same manner as Claude Fable 5 or Claude Fable 5.1 would qualify, including a new whole-number generation such as Claude Fable 6, while models whose name does not include "Fable" or which retain a version designation below 5.2, such as Claude Fable 5.1 or Claude Mythos 5.1, will not qualify. A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must either be clearly defined and publicly announced by Anthropic as accessible to the general public, or otherwise be made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled on the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Anthropic, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
December 31
December 31
Yes01234567890123456789.0123456789¢
Outcome
Bal $0123456789
$USD
Avg price01234567890123456789.0123456789¢
Est. shares012345678901234567890123456789.01234567890123456789
Amount$012345678901234567890123456789.01234567890123456789
Est. fee$0123456789.01234567890123456789
To win$012345678901234567890123456789.01234567890123456789