
OpenAI·GPT-5·Big Tech
GPT-6 released by…?
VOL $794,007
ALL
December 31, 2026
VOL $85,890
September 30, 2026
VOL $103,697
August 31, 2026
VOL $79,677
August 21, 2026
VOL $41,733
August 14, 2026
VOL $44,465
August 7, 2026
VOL $29,312
July 31, 2026
VOL $81,104
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI's GPT-6 model is made available to the general public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For this market to resolve to "Yes," GPT-6 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.
GPT-6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-6 (e.g. ChatGPT-6o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-5, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-5.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

December 31, 2026
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